Want Elon Money? Stop Falling for This
Your brain loves the “safe” choice, and the market punishes it more often than you think. We grab a hypothetical time machine and make the kinds of decisions that feel obvious in the moment then reveal what really happened when history played out. From the 2000 NFL draft (Courtney Brown vs a “skinny fat” quarterback named Tom Brady) to the 1984 NBA draft (Sam Bowie vs Michael Jordan), we watch rational logic turn into legendary regret.
Then we jump to investing and replay 2007, when BlackBerry looked unbeatable and Apple’s keyboard-less iPhone got laughed at. We also dig into two stories that aren’t about missing the winner at all, but about getting fooled by something that was never real: Theranos and Nikola. It’s a blunt reminder that hype, glossy press, and a good demo video are not the same as working technology or a durable business.
The emotional gut punch is Amazon. We follow a $5,000 investment through brutal drops including a 94% crash, another major decline, and the 2008 financial crisis then compare what happens if you sell versus hold. That sets up the core takeaway for long term investing: picking the right company is hard, but holding through volatility is the real filter. We end with the data on why only a small slice of stocks drives most market gains, why even pros struggle to beat the market, and why a simple index fund can be the cheat code for passive investing and wealth building. If this hit home, subscribe, share it with a friend who stock picks, and leave a review with the biggest investing lesson you’ve learned.
00:00 - Time Machine For Money Decisions
00:39 - Draft Picks And Bad Certainty
02:55 - Smartphones And The Safe Bet Trap
04:17 - Theranos And Nikola Fake Winners
05:42 - Amazon And The Pain Of Holding
07:30 - The 4 Percent Rule Of Returns
08:12 - Index Funds As The Real Strategy
Time Machine For Money Decisions
SPEAKER_00Guys, guess what? Time machine. I got one.
SPEAKER_02That's a TV remote.
SPEAKER_00It's hypothetical. The point is.
SPEAKER_02Can I use it first? I want to see what dad looked like in high school.
SPEAKER_00No. We're going back in time to make financial decisions and approve a point.
SPEAKER_02What's the point?
SPEAKER_00That you would have made the wrong call every single time.
SPEAKER_01I would not have made the wrong call.
SPEAKER_00Today, we're going back in time. Fake money, real decisions, real consequences.
SPEAKER_02Welcome to Triple the Money.
SPEAKER_00I'm Emily.
SPEAKER_02I'm Austin. I make good calls. I'm Brandon, and I still want to see Dad in high school.
Draft Picks And Bad Certainty
SPEAKER_00First up, the year is 2000 and we're going to the NFL draft. Your first option is Courtney Brown. He was a decorated college athlete and he was the first pick of the year.
SPEAKER_01Courtney Brown, obviously.
SPEAKER_00Okay. Option two is a quarterback who was somehow too fat and too skinny at the same time. He couldn't throw deep and he was too slow. Who do you pick?
SPEAKER_02How are you skinny and fat?
SPEAKER_00He just was. Who do you pick?
SPEAKER_02Courtney Brown. It's not even close. Yeah, Courtney Brown. The skinny fat one sounds bad.
SPEAKER_00Your second option? That's Tom Brady. 199th in the draft pick. 198 teams skipped out on him. Courtney Brown played seven seasons, no Pro Bowl, and his career was mostly just derailed by injuries. Tom Brady? He won seven Super Bowls.
SPEAKER_01You pick Courtney Brown. I picked Courtney Brown.
SPEAKER_00Okay, now we're going back in time. The year is 1984. We're going back to the NBA draft pick. Pick number two is Michael Bowie.
SPEAKER_01That's not a person.
SPEAKER_00Michael. David Bowie? Plays basketball, right?
SPEAKER_02David Bowie's a singer, Emily.
SPEAKER_00Sam. Sam Bowie. Portland passed him up because they already had a guard and they just needed a big man.
SPEAKER_01Okay. Who's picked three?
SPEAKER_00Michael Jackson.
SPEAKER_02Emily.
SPEAKER_00Jordan. Michael Jordan. Pick three for the Chicago Bulls.
SPEAKER_01Portland passed on Michael Jordan.
SPEAKER_00To take Sam Bowie because they needed a center and they already had a guard. It seemed reasonable.
SPEAKER_01Okay, that is reasonable.
SPEAKER_00Sam Bowie suffered stress fractures. He played 139 games in his career, and his career was basically ended by injury. Jordan won six championships, five MVPs, and was basically the greatest player who ever lived.
SPEAKER_02They passed on Michael Jordan because they already had a guard. Calm down. Portland said that they already had that position covered. They don't need the go.
SPEAKER_00And investors do this every day. We already have exposure in this sector. We don't need another one. And that's how you pass on Michael Jordan and end up with a Sam Bowie.
Smartphones And The Safe Bet Trap
SPEAKER_00Okay, so now the year is 2007. You have money to invest. Option one is the greatest smartphone on the planet. Every doctor, celebrity, and CEO has one. The company is worth over 60 billion dollars.
SPEAKER_02If every cool person has one, I'll take that. Yeah, that's the obvious pick.
SPEAKER_00Option two, a computer company came out with a new phone. It didn't have a keyboard, and everyone laughed at it. Okay, so both of you, pick a company. Who do you choose?
SPEAKER_02I'll choose option one. That's what all the millionaires use. Option one, that seems legit.
SPEAKER_01I'm not gonna choose a company that everyone laughs at.
SPEAKER_00And those companies were Blackberry and Apple.
SPEAKER_01Wait, I'm switching to Apple. Same. Apple, obviously. What even is a Blackberry?
SPEAKER_00You guys both just said that Blackberry was easy and obvious.
SPEAKER_02Well, that was before you said the other company was Apple.
SPEAKER_00This is the problem. Everyone switches after the information. In 2007, Blackberry looked like the safe option, and Apple looked like the gamble. That is exactly how every wrong call feels in the moment.
SPEAKER_01What even happened to Blackberry?
SPEAKER_00Worth basically zero today. Apple, on the other hand, became the most valuable company, worth $3 trillion.
SPEAKER_02Whoa, three trillion dollars?
SPEAKER_00These next two aren't about missing the winner. They're about picking something that's completely fake.
SPEAKER_01Oh no.
Theranos And Nikola Fake Winners
SPEAKER_00Okay, we're going back to 2013. Elizabeth Holmes was on the cover of Forbes. She was being called the next Steve Jobs. Her company, Theranos, claims it can run over 200 medical tests from a single drop of blood. Okay, so the company is valued at $9 billion. Do you invest?
SPEAKER_01The next Steve Jobs, one drop of blood? That's revolutionary. I'm in.
SPEAKER_02Same. Forbes doesn't put frauds on the cover.
SPEAKER_00The technology didn't work. It was all a fraud. It was revealed in 2015 by a journalist, and she went to prison, and the company collapsed.
SPEAKER_02Forbes put a fraud on the cover?
SPEAKER_00Yep. Forbes put a fraud on the cover. And now your money is zero. Let's move on. Okay, let's fast forward to 2020. An electric truck company goes public. Within weeks, it's worth $30 billion. More than Ford, who've been making trucks for a hundred years. All they did was release a video of their truck driving down the road.
SPEAKER_01Okay, this one seems more legit.
SPEAKER_00Well, actually, they just pushed the truck to a top of a hill, pushed it down, and filmed it. No engine, just gravity.
SPEAKER_02The truck was just rolling?
SPEAKER_00Yep. The founder was convicted of fraud, filed for bankruptcy in 2025, and its stock lost over 99% of its value.
SPEAKER_02$30 billion on one rolling truck. And we were about to say it seemed legit. Well, they had a video, Austin.
SPEAKER_00One more. This one's different.
Amazon And The Pain Of Holding
SPEAKER_00We're going back to the year 1997. This is an online bookstore, and you can invest $5,000.
SPEAKER_02I love books.
SPEAKER_00Okay, so you both put in $5,000, and by 1999, it was looking good. Your stocks were valued at $113 a share.
SPEAKER_01Okay, nice.
SPEAKER_00Then the dot com bubble bursts. By 2001, your stocks dropped from $113 to $5.51. That's a 94% crash.
SPEAKER_01I'm out. I'm absolutely out. That bookstore lost me $90 a share.
SPEAKER_00Okay, Austin's out. Brandon, are you still in?
SPEAKER_02I'm staying in. I love books.
SPEAKER_00Now we're in 2006 and the company's been recovering, but then it drops another 56%. Investors are skeptical about whether the bookstore will ever be profitable.
SPEAKER_02Still in.
SPEAKER_00Okay, it's 2008 and the global financial crisis happens. Your stock drops another 60%. It falls over 25% in a single month.
SPEAKER_02Ooh, okay. I'm still in though. I love books.
SPEAKER_00Austin sold at the 94% crash, and Brandon survived all three crashes. Fast forward to today, that company is Amazon.
SPEAKER_01Oh no.
SPEAKER_00Your $5,000 from 1997, if you held through every single crash, would be worth $11 million today.
SPEAKER_02Wow, Austin, you sold Amazon for $5.51. It's time to pick up a book like me. I didn't know it was. You sold Amazon. The bookstore lost 95%. I thought it was doomed. It was Amazon, Austin.
SPEAKER_00And this is why picking is almost impossible. Even if you pick right, the crashes are real and most people sell. Okay, so here's the pattern.
The 4 Percent Rule Of Returns
SPEAKER_00A professor named Bessenbinder studied nearly a hundred years of US stock data. Only 4% of companies have driven every single dollar of wealth the market has created. The other 96% basically break even with a savings account.
SPEAKER_02So most stocks are just Sam Bowie?
SPEAKER_00Yep, most stocks are just Sam Bowie. And even professional fund managers, Harvard grads, MIT grads, people who do this full time, 95% of them fail to beat a simple index fund over 20 years.
SPEAKER_01So even if you find the right company, you might sell when it drops down to 94%?
SPEAKER_00And that's the real problem. It's not just picking, right? It's holding through every crash, every article saying it's over, and every moment your brain tells you to sell. Almost nobody does it.
SPEAKER_02So what should
Index Funds As The Real Strategy
SPEAKER_02we actually do?
SPEAKER_00Index fund, you buy one thing and you own a tiny piece of every single company in America. Apple, Amazon, Nvidia, all of them. When the next Amazon crashes, you barely feel any of it. When it comes back and turns 5,000 into 11 million, you get all the upside.
SPEAKER_01So you can't miss the next Amazon because you already own it?
SPEAKER_00And you don't have to white knuckle through every single crash alone. The index holds for you.
SPEAKER_02We own the whole draft class. We get Jordan and Amazon automatically.
SPEAKER_01We don't need to decide to sell when the bookstore drops 94%.
SPEAKER_00Exactly.
SPEAKER_01That's genuinely a relief.
SPEAKER_00Here's the thing: 200 scouts passed on Tom Brady, and Portland passed on Michael Jordan because they already had a guard. BlackBerry laughed at the iPhone, Theranos was on Forbes, Nicola was rolling a truck, and Amazon looked like a dead bookstore before it turned 5,000 into 11 million.
SPEAKER_01Only 4% of stocks have driven all gains since 1926. Even professionals with Harvard MBAs failed to beat the market 95% of the time.
SPEAKER_02The cheat code, index fund, own everything. Get Jordan automatically.